Fear…As it does not exist! Perceived threat of another nuclear disaster, uncertainty of radiation level, waste disposal issue and increasing number of nuclear weapons induce fear across the world but, no…obviously, it is not enough. Again, the shift is and will be driven further on by pure economic forces. Reluctance to invest is due to the political uncertainty having for its’ consequence possible closure as well as to expanses in terms of post-Fukushima safety requirements making assessment of costs and revenues impossible. Increased costs imply lower profits and reduced marked share. Therefore, public resistance does not count as much as the high level of risk following the investments.
However, scenarios vary from country to country. For instance in France, Francois Hollande, socialist candidate for presidential elections, has promised to cut reliance of France on nuclear energy sources vastly by 2025. which would directly endanger EDF (Électricité de France S.A.). Namely, 75% of electricity in France is produced out of nuclear power plants! With 58 reactors across the country, it counts together with the USA and Japan for more than 50% of nuclear energy produced at the world level. However, the fact is that those reactors cannot be halted over night. Political game is essential here, especially when one knows that the major part of company is owned by the state as well as that 2/3 out of its’ profit is made at home – it would have deep consequences. Cost of €60 billion and 1 million jobs I peril, non-sense in the wake of economic crisis. However, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and probably Belgium are among those countries that have more serious approach towards halting their nuclear industry. On the other hand, across the Atlantic we have Exelon, the largest nuclear generator in the US, trying to handle the situation throughout increased output of a plant by means of ‘uprates’. Namely, they install new equipment in old plants improving the effectiveness and making it more attractive to investors. Fortunately, this source is exhaustible – there are limits to which plant potentials can be boosted. Among countries which plan to continue with their nuclear programs are, first and foremost, China, then Russia and FSU countries. Challenges associated might be underestimated though. For instance, only China has 27 reactors under construction increasing its’ capacity by factor of 7 or 8 rushing towards 2020 goals which might emerge numerous unexpected construction and operating problems. Also, there are countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE and Vietnam willing to involve themselves in order to advance their economies by gaining technical expertise and some industrial infrastructure.
Apart from Y4,700bl of estimated cost for TEPCO, there are far-reaching consequences that are being hide. And the fact is that it could have been prevented. It could have been said that the reactors had been built on fault line where tectonic movements might cause serious damage! It could have been said that according to TEPCO’s 2008 studies, tsunami exciding 10 meters might smash the plant!
It is the matter of time, I believe. One country, however, had to pay high price. At the end, they are our heroes.
Written by Ivana Letic
